What is the possibility of a second outbreak in COVID-19？ Do you still need the vaccine？ Experts say this.

　　At the first Oriental International Infection Week held on April 1st, whether there will be a new round of infection in COVID-19 caused a heated discussion.

　　Most experts attending the meeting believe that COVID-19 will continue to exist, but the probability of a large-scale outbreak is very small.

　　There are still sporadic cases in COVID-19,There is a need for antiviral treatment.

　　Niu Junqi, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases and Pathogenic Organisms of the First Hospital of Jilin University, quoted data at the forum, saying that since December 9, 2022, the positive number and positive rate of Covid-19 nucleic acid detection among the reporting population in various provinces showed a trend of increasing at first and then decreasing. As of March 16th this year, the positive rate of nucleic acid detection in COVID-19 was 0.8%.

　　Niu Junqi said: "At present, there are still sporadic cases of COVID-19, and there is actual demand for anti-Covid-19 treatment. The national policy suggests that medical institutions reserve COVID-19 antiviral drugs."

　　Yuan Guoyong, a professor of microbiology at the University of Hong Kong, published an article on March 23rd, saying: "With the characteristics of this microorganism (Covid-19), we must be prepared. If we don’t make preparations, we will pay a huge price."

　　In this regard, Niu Junqi believes that from the characteristics of reinfection and breakthrough infection of the new crown, neutralizing antibodies will appear and rise rapidly after reinfection, and the course of disease will be shortened, and it will be mainly asymptomatic and mild.

　　Jiang Rongmeng, vice president of beijing ditan hospital, said: "The prevention and control of COVID-19 and influenza must be prepared, monitored and non-pharmaceutical interventions; There must also be antiviral drugs; There must be various forms of vaccines available. "

　　Professor Liu Yingxia from the National Center for Clinical Medicine of Infectious Diseases of the Third People’s Hospital of Shenzhen quoted Nature as saying that the virus continues to mutate, and there is still the risk of COVID-19 mutant with unknown severity.

　　Professor Ning Yi from the School of Public Health of Hainan Medical College said: "Reinfection is very important for the future epidemic. However, at present, there are few studies on the protection against reinfection after infection with Omicron mutant, and whether the first infection is immune to the second infection in Omicron remains to be further studied. "

　　Ning Yi disclosed the data of a study in Hainan Province, which showed that the protection rate of the first infection for reinfection was about 77%, and the protection rate for severe cases was about 94.5%. However, he stressed that these results are dynamic and can be used to predict the infection situation in 3-4 months.

　　Wang Guiqiang, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of the First Hospital of Peking University, also said that reinfection is mainly related to the breakthrough infection of the mutant, which is directly related to the antibody immunity level in the human body.

　　A second outbreak is unlikely.High-risk groups still need to be vaccinated

　　Professor Lu Fengmin from School of Basic Medicine of Peking University published an article in EMI (Emerging Microbes and Infections) magazine last month, arguing that the peak of COVID-19 infection in China last December, together with the population immunity obtained by vaccination, will provide some protection against COVID-19 infection in about six months. Lu Fengmin told the First Financial Reporter: "From the data of the United States, after the big infection peak in Omicron last year, the recent infection gradually tended to be flat. We think it is unlikely that there will be a second wave of large-scale epidemic outbreaks in China."

　　Professor Huang Ailong, the president of Chongqing Medical University, also told the First Financial Reporter: "The immune barrier that has been established rapidly in a short time in China should be able to put some uninfected ’ Survivor ’ Protect it. "

　　According to the latest forecast of Huang Senzhong of the Institute of Public Health and Wellness of Nankai University, assuming that there is no new infection tide induced by new mutants except BA.5.2 and BF.7, the domestic COVID-19 epidemic will remain in a "low epidemic" state by the end of 2023. He believes that, on the whole, from the end of July, it is necessary to closely monitor whether there is a large increase in the number of infected people in COVID-19.

　　This week, the World Health Organization adjusted its recommendations on vaccination in COVID-19, believing that the future vaccination work will focus on high-risk groups. In this regard, domestic experts also said that healthy adults, children and adolescents who have been infected with COVID-19 and have been vaccinated with the whole COVID-19 vaccine do not need to be vaccinated with new booster shots for the time being.

　　"The immune protection obtained by the original vaccination plus natural infection should be relatively high, and there is little chance of reinfection in at least half a year." Wang Xinyu, deputy chief physician of the Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, told the First Financial Reporter, "On the other hand, if you vaccinate the next booster vaccine, it is best to vaccinate the Omicron mutant."

　　Most experts believe that although the group immune barrier has been established in COVID-19, local and sporadic infections will continue for some time, so it is still necessary to vaccinate vulnerable groups such as the elderly.

　　"We still need to make a good vaccination plan, especially for the elderly and other people with low immune system. Once these people are infected with COVID-19, the secondary infection and complications will bring great challenges to treatment." Professor Zhong Ming, director of the Department of Critical Care Medicine of Zhongshan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, told the First Financial Reporter.