Why is there a ＂coup resurgence＂ in West Africa and the Sahel？

　　[Global Times correspondent in Nigeria Jiang Xuan Global Times reporter Ding Yazhi] On the evening of the 8th, US Secretary of State Blinken called on the coup soldiers in Niger to "immediately release" President Bazoum and his family. On July 26th, a coup took place in Niger, which is only the latest case of frequent coups in West Africa and Sahel countries in recent years. Since the 1960s, this region has become one of the regions with the most coups in the world, even known as the "coup belt". This phenomenon is caused by various reasons within the countries in the region, as well as the influence of big country games and foreign interference. Some analysts said that coups in West Africa and the Sahel have brought great challenges to the security and economic development of the region, but there is no quick solution to stabilize the regional security situation.

　　West Africa usually refers to the western part of Africa, bordering Lake Chad in the east, the Atlantic Ocean in the west, the Gulf of Guinea in the south and the Sahara Desert in the north, including 16 countries including Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger and Nigeria, and British overseas territories Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha. The word "Sahel" comes from Arabic and literally means "coast". Some media also said that this word means "edge" and refers to a zone from sub-Saharan to grassland. The Sahel in a broad sense extends from the Atlantic coast of Africa to the Red Sea. It is a zone with a total length of over 5,400 kilometers and a width of up to 1,000 kilometers, including at least 14 countries including Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria and Chad. In a narrow sense, the Sahel countries are the Group of Five, which refers to the five core countries in the region, namely Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mauritania. Many countries belong to both West Africa and Sahel. Because of frequent coups, some media and analysts refer to the Sahel, West Africa, or West Africa and Sahel as "coup zones".

　　In the 1950s and 1960s, more than 30 countries in Africa achieved independence. Powell, an associate professor in university of central florida, and other American researchers found that there have been more than 200 coups in Africa since 1950s. From 1960 to 2000, there were four coups or attempted coups in Africa every year on average. Australia’s "Dialogue News Network" and other media said that in the 1960s and 1970s, there was a coup every 55 days in Africa, and more than 90% of African countries had a coup experience. After 2000, the number of coups and attempted coups in Africa decreased significantly. However, since 2017, of the 17 coups recorded in the world, all occurred in Africa except one in Myanmar. Powell said that Sudan is the country with the largest number of coups in Africa. The latest coup in the country was in 2021, which triggered an explosive military conflict and recently turned into a full-scale war.

　　West Africa and the Sahel are among the regions with the most coups in Africa and the world. The British "New African" magazine bluntly said that in Africa, coups are more common in West Africa and the Sahel than in other regions; In West Africa, this situation is more common in French-speaking countries than in English-speaking countries. According to Australia’s "Dialogue News Network", some studies show that from 1958 to 2008, the number of coups in West and Central Africa and the Sahel was the highest in the African continent every 10 years, accounting for 44.4%. Research by Nigerian scholar Suleiman shows that since 2010, there have been more than 40 coups and attempted coups in Africa, of which 20 occurred in West Africa and the Sahel.

　　Spain’s "World Order" website recently issued a document saying that since 2020, there have been about 10 coups in eight West African and Sahel countries. It is worth noting that some countries in the region even staged coups several times in a short period of time. There were coups in Mali in 2020 and 2021, and the country’s transitional government also defeated a military coup attempt in 2022. Coups in Guinea-Bissau, Gambia and other countries failed, while in Guinea, Chad, Sudan, Burkina Faso and Niger recently, the coups succeeded in overthrowing civilian governments and establishing military governments, and they are still in power.

　　Has become the center of global terrorism.

　　He Wenping, a researcher at west asia and africa Institute of China Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with Global Times that the military coup in Niger is the latest case in the "coup resurgence" in West Africa and Sahel countries in recent years. A number of media said that the frequent coups in the region were the result of the combined effects of internal and external factors. Governance problems, unsatisfied civil rights, public dissatisfaction and deteriorating security situation in countries in West Africa and the Sahel are the main internal causes of frequent coups. "Considering the turbulent years experienced by African countries after independence, this (frequent coups) is not surprising." Powell said: poverty and economic backwardness have caused some African countries to have a breeding ground for coups.

　　According to the information of Spanish "World Order" news network, American think tank Brookings Institution and other media and think tanks, countries in the Sahel region have been plagued by extreme poverty and political corruption since the 1960s. After analyzing the data of the World Bank, some scholars found that during the period from 1990 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in West Africa after deducting inflation was 4%, but due to the rapid population growth, the per capita GDP growth rate during this period was only 1.3%. By 2021, the human development index of West Africa has just exceeded 0.5, which lags far behind other regions. Many people in some countries in West Africa and the Sahel need humanitarian assistance. For example, the extreme poverty rate in Niger is over 40%, while about 1/5 of Burkina Faso’s total population, that is, 4.7 million people, need humanitarian assistance this year, and it is necessary to raise 877 million US dollars to meet the country’s emergency needs.

　　"The flawed system is the root of the coup." According to the analysis of New African magazine, in recent years, people in West Africa and the Sahel have almost always responded positively to the coup, which shows that the coup is a "symptom" of the system failure in these countries. According to the magazine, the mantra of "military rule is not good, civilian rule is good" is often imposed on African countries, as if the complex problems of the African continent can be solved by a simple formula, and many elected officials have corruption problems, while the level of administrative governance is not high, and there are few public services provided to the people, which makes many people very dissatisfied. The Associated Press said that the coup leaders in the region accused the government of failing to meet the people’s expectations for the "democratic dividend", so they will solve these problems by forming a new government.

　　The deterioration of the regional security environment is also an important reason for the frequent coups in West Africa and the Sahel. According to a recent report on Spain’s "World Order" website, in the past 10 years, branches of extremist organizations such as Al Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) have taken advantage of social dissatisfaction and weak links in state governance in the region to establish their own spheres of influence and launched activities in many countries. According to the Global Terrorism Index report of the Australian Institute of Economics and Peace, the Sahel region has surpassed the Middle East and South Asia to become the center of global terrorism. In 2022, global terrorist attacks killed 6,701 people, and the Sahel region accounted for 43% of them. The Associated Press said that violent activities carried out by extremist organizations in West Africa and the Sahel are increasing, which in turn leads people to oppose the government.

　　In addition, You Tao, a researcher at the Research Center of the Economic Community of West African States of Hohai University, previously wrote that the national boundaries of West African countries were randomly demarcated by previous colonists, which separated the people and their territories of long-formed tribes, kingdoms or empires. This practice of colonialists led to internal division of West African countries after independence, frequent regional conflicts, and border and territorial disputes became the fuse of some military coups. In addition, tribal politics has a great influence in some countries in West Africa and Sahel region. The powerful tribes often support each other with domestic political parties, and the struggle between tribes has further evolved into a nationwide military coup. In some areas, traditional tribal forces are also integrated with religious forces, inciting tribal people’s emotions through beliefs or interests and making excuses for political struggles.

　　He Wenping believes that the frequent military coups in West Africa and the Sahel in recent years are due to the difficulties in life and the intensification of terrorist activities caused by crises such as the COVID-19 epidemic, and the dissatisfaction of coup soldiers with the former regime (including the former coup military authorities). The coup d’ é tat in Niger is also related to the transmission and demonstration effect of frequent coups in countries in the region in recent years, especially the previous coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and other countries and the final success of the coup soldiers, all of which have had an "incentive" effect to some extent.

　　There are traces of foreign interference.

　　Foreign interference and the game between big powers have also increased the possibility of coups in West Africa and the Sahel. Some media said that since the coup in Niger on July 26th, a group of supporters of the military government appeared on the streets of Niamey, the capital. Many of them waved Russian flags and shouted slogans condemning France, the former colonial sovereign state. This phenomenon is not the first time, and similar situations have occurred in Mali and Burkina Faso. The New York Times quoted analysts as saying that this does not mean that Russia is behind the coup in Niger and other countries, but it reflects how Moscow has positioned itself as an anti-Western "torchbearer" in Africa in recent years. There are also views that this shows that the "coup belt" in Africa has become a wrestling field between the West and Russia.

　　Li Wentao, executive director of the Institute of African Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times reporter that there were frequent coups in West Africa and the Sahel, in which the big countries played fiercely and the geographical competition was strong. He Wenping said that Russia has increased its diplomatic and military ties with African countries in recent years. At the diplomatic level, in 2019, Russia held the first Russia-Africa summit in Sochi, focusing on the cooperation between Moscow and African countries in the fields of economy and security. In terms of military and security influence, nearly half of African countries import military equipment from Russia. Big buyers and long-term importers of Russian weapons include Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco and Uganda. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia stepped up its African diplomacy in order to break the western diplomatic containment. At present, it seems that the "French retreat to Russia" staged by countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso may only be a "prelude", and I am afraid it will not "end" soon.

　　Australia’s "Dialogue News Network" and other media said that just like after the wave of independence in Africa, the coups in West Africa and the Sahel in recent years also showed traces of foreign interference. For example, in media reports, the coups in Mali in 2020 and 2021 and the coup in Burkina Faso in 2022 all mentioned Russia. The organizers of the two coups in Mali reportedly also received training and assistance from the United States. Some media also said that since 2008, American-trained officers have carried out at least nine coups in five West African countries. As France colonized many countries in West Africa and the Sahel, the influence of Paris on the political development in this region is almost established. It is reported that coups in some countries in the region have also received support from France. According to statistics, since 1960, France has carried out more than 10 military interventions in African countries.

　　There is no quick solution.

　　According to the BBC, military coups have occurred from time to time in the decades after the independence of African countries, but now people are worried that coups may become more frequent. Oxford University scholar Collier told The New York Times: "I am very worried that the Sahel will collapse." The British "Economist" magazine reported that the coup in Niger triggered an unprecedented crisis, and the most worrying thing now is that this may trigger a regional war. Even if this danger is avoided, this coup will almost certainly have an impact on the action against extremists. The Association for Foreign Relations, an American think tank, recently warned that the situation in Niger may undermine illegal immigration and human trafficking in Europe, because the country is located on the main route to the Mediterranean.

　　According to the British "Guardian" report, the stability of Niger is crucial to the future of West Africa and the Sahel, which is crucial to the future of the African continent. Problems in West Africa and the Sahel will affect countries in southern and northern Africa, such as Libya, Algeria and Egypt. The coup d’ é tat has brought great influence and obstacles to the economic, social and social development of West African countries, resulting in the displacement of people and the breeding of unstable factors such as terrorism.

　　Chatham House, a British think tank, previously issued a document saying that there is no quick solution to stabilize the security situation in the Sahel. In the foreseeable future, the insecurity in the Sahel needs regular policy attention. The agency suggested that the frequent coups in this region should be dealt with through institution building, improving government governance, providing better security for the people and investment. Australia’s "Dialogue News Network" said that the conditions for the coup are constantly changing. In order to avoid future coups in West Africa and the Sahel and deal with the current coups, it is necessary to completely change the coping methods. With the help of regional and global partners, countries in the region must solve the governance deficit.