Leading indicators show that the overall economic recovery in China is obvious.
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 31st Question: The leading indicators show that the overall economic recovery in China is obvious.
Xinhua News Agency reporters Zhou Wenqi, Xin Guo and Zhang Wenjing.
According to the latest data, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was in the expansion range for the third consecutive month in March.
According to the data released by the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on the 31st, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of manufacturing industry was 51.9% in March, which was 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month and higher than the critical point, and the manufacturing industry kept expanding.
"Affected by factors such as the high base last month, the manufacturing PMI declined in March, and the prosperity level was still the highest in the past two years. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 13 industries had higher PMI than last month." Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
This is the wharf of Taicang Port in Jiangsu Province (photo of drone) taken on March 13th, 2023. Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Boshe
From October to December, 2022, China’s manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, 48% and 47% respectively, and it was in the contraction range for three consecutive months. In January 2023, it jumped to 50.1% and returned to the expansion range. In February, it climbed to 52.6%.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the the State Council Development Research Center, said that since October last year, the manufacturing PMI has relatively quickly returned from threshold to the line of prosperity and decline. Although it fell back in March this year compared with February, 51.9% is still at a higher level on the line of prosperity and decline.
"Although there is a slight fluctuation, the situation that the manufacturing PMI has been on the line of prosperity and decline for three consecutive months shows that the level of economic activity in China has continued to rise, the vitality of business entities has gradually increased, and the overall economic recovery trend is obvious." Zhang Liqun said.
According to statistics, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises in March was 53.6%, 50.3% and 50.4% respectively, all above the critical point.
Zhao Xijun, co-dean of China Capital Market Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said that in the past, sometimes the manufacturing PMI was higher than 50%, but the performance of SMEs was poor. Nowadays, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises is in the expansion range, indicating that the production and operation of various business entities are steadily recovering.
On March 29th, in the production workshop of Harbin Electric Machinery Factory Co., Ltd. of Harbin Electric Power Group, the intelligent laminating robot was carrying out automatic operation. Xinhua News Agency reporter Xie Jianfei photo
In addition, the production index in March was 54.6%, and the new order index was 53.6%.
Zhao Xijun said that these two figures have reached a high level of prosperity, which not only shows that the manufacturing enterprises have increased their production tasks, started well, and the overall market has improved, but also shows that the policy of "stabilizing the economy and expanding domestic demand" is constantly showing results.
The performance of non-manufacturing industry is even brighter. In March, the business activity index of non-manufacturing industry was 58.2%, up by 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, which was significantly higher than the critical point, indicating that the pace of recovery and development of non-manufacturing industry was accelerated.
Zhao Qinghe said that from the perspective of industry, the business activity index of retail, railway transportation, road transportation, air transportation, leasing and business services is higher than 60.0%, indicating that residents’ willingness to consume and travel has increased recently, and the market activity of related industries has rebounded rapidly.
Like the latest manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index, many economic indicators released in March all showed an "upward curve", conveying the warmth and vitality of China’s economic recovery.
In the first two months of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 3.5% year-on-year. Investment in fixed assets increased by 5.5% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the annual growth rate of last year; Total export value increased by 0.9% year-on-year & hellip; … The "troika" driving economic growth is in a steady trend.
On February 28th, citizens were buying snacks at Sanse Road Night Market in Jinjiang District, Chengdu, Sichuan Province. Xinhua News Agency reporter Tang Wenhao photo
Qunar. com statistics show that in the first three weeks of March, the number of flight bookings in several cities in China exceeded the same period in 2019; According to the monitoring data of the State Post Bureau, as of March 8, the express delivery business in China reached 20 billion pieces in 2023, 72 days ahead of 2019; According to data released by the People’s Bank of China, the scale of social financing increased by 3.16 trillion yuan in February, 1.95 trillion yuan more than the same period last year … … The activity of people flow, logistics and capital flow has been significantly improved.
After raising the GDP growth forecast of China in 2023 from 5.2% to 5.5% in January, the investment bank Goldman Sachs recently raised the growth forecast to 6%.
"The solid material and technical foundation for economic development, the rapid and stable transition of epidemic prevention and control, the appropriate and effective macroeconomic policies, and the increasing confidence of business entities have made China’s economy steadily pick up and continue to improve after the start of the year." Zhang Liqun said that China’s economy has steadily entered the track of recovery, and the prospect of recovery is relatively clear, and it is expected to get out of the economic growth curve of sustained recovery throughout the year.
In 2023, China’s economic operation started well. Looking forward to the whole year, people in the industry believe that although China’s economic development is still facing pressure and challenges, with the gradual consolidation of the foundation of economic recovery and the continuous implementation of measures to stabilize the economy, it is expected to continue to recover to a good situation throughout the year.